Saturday, August 27, 2005

Mystique Aura and the markets.
The Yankees have according to BP's projections a 48% chance of making the playoffs. As all the teams are around equal this means they have a 6% chance of winning the World Series however for some reason they are selling at 11.7% chace of winning right now. This makes me wonder why is this market so inefficient ande why is the inefficiency not being exploited. The probable reason is that people who don't agree with the odds feel that others do agree thus keeping prices up.


At 9:15 PM, Blogger Tobie said...

I don't know if this is due to mystique or the eternal optimism of fans. New York being a bigger than average city and a recently successful team, it's quite likely that they have an above average number of fans.


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