Tuesday, November 08, 2005

The wins fallacy
Johan Santana was robbed plain and simple. Colon had 21 wins and so won the award. In games Colon started his team had a 67.9% chance of winning and due to their superior bullpen won 72.4% of the time. When Santana started with 1.2 fewer runs of support his team had a 67.2% chance of winning and won 69.6% of the time. A classmate of mine argued for Colon due to the wins. He argued that a pitcher's only job is to win games and that it is a skill separate from ptiching. He said that Colon gave up lots of runs in wins and thus boosted his ERA however he had the skill to prevent more runs than necessary from scoring. In fact Colon had a 7.20 ERA in his losses and a 2.79 ERA in wins Comparatively Santana had a 6.44 ERA in losses and a 2.02 ERA in wins. So not only did he make a stupid statement generally but also the numbers don't support his claim either.

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