Saturday, March 18, 2006

Wisdom of the Crowds part II

In my last post about the NCAA I made predictions about the brackets and predicted better accuracy than the experts. So after one round I want to see how I did. First let’s see how the three “experts” did. Expert 1 predicted 26 of 32 games right this is a very good percentage and far excels any of the other two experts or my ways of picking. Expert 2 predicted 22 games right. Expert 3 predicted 21 games right. Now, how did the non-experts pick? The favorite, chosen by better seed, won 23 of the 32 games or better than 2 of the experts. The team with the better RPI won 22 of the 32 games behind one expert ahead of another and tied with a third. The bettors at Trade Sports were right in 23 of the games. Thus far it appears that the crowds, the bracket makers, and RPI are all equally good at picking and they all equal or do better than the experts.

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