Monday, April 24, 2006

Series Preview Yankees vs. Tampa Bay

The Yankees open a three game series against the Devil Rays on Tuesday. This series is one the Yankees have got to win at least 2 of them.

Mussina vs Kazmir
Yankees Winning Probability (This is based on Pythagorean records adjusted to starter. I am using a majority of starter performance based on ZIPS projections right now because of the small sample size). The Yankees have an approximately 69% chance of winning this game. Kazmir has an approach which could play into the Yankees hands. The Yankees are a patient team and Kazmir relies on batters chasing pitches out of the zone. I could definitely see Giambi having a big day against him. This game is probably the one the Yankees will have the most trouble with.
Wang vs McClung
Yankees Winning Probability- 80%. This game is one the Yankees should easily take as they send out the inconsistent Wang against the consistently bad Seth Mcclung. Look for pretty much everyone to have a good game.
Chacon vs. Hendrickson
Yankees Winning Probability- 72%. The Yankees chances are probably better than this as Hendrickson's predictions is brought down by his 1 start where he had a zero ERA. Chacon has been either bad or lucky this year. Against the Orioles for example he gave up only one run in 6 innings but he did it without striking out many and he walked three batters. The other starts he was not good at all. The Yankees will probably hace to score a lot of runs to win this game which looks to be a slugfest.
This series looks like one the Yankees can take and their expected series is a 2.2-.8 series victory. They probably aren't at that high a probability as they are pitching over their heads but
their offense is excellent and the D Rays pitching isn't.

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